CO2 Emission Projection Analysis Based On Cement Consumption In Indonesia

Abstract

Climate change is a global issue driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere. The cement industry contributes approximately 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Economic growth and urbanization have caused cement consumption to continue to increase during the period 1980-2014. This study aims to analyze cement consumption and project CO₂ emissions from the calcination process based on cement consumption in six major regions of Indonesia: Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali–Nusa Tenggara, and Eastern Indonesia in 2025-2050. The study utilized cement consumption data from 2008 to 2022, obtained from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS).Cement emissions were calculated using the IPCC cement consumption approach. This study used GIS to visualize cement emissions based on cement consumption in Indonesia. Future emissions projected under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Java Island was identified as the region with the highest cement consumption and production during the 2008–2023 period, with Jakarta, West Java, East Java, and Banten as the largest consumers. Cement consumption in all regions peaked in 2016, driven by extensive infrastructure projects, particularly in transportation and irrigation. The emission pattern follows the consumption trend, with Java recording the highest emissions with total CO₂emissions of 11,095,722 ton of CO₂  in 2023.  Java is projected to experience a decline in emissions by 2050, while other regions, especially Kalimantan and Eastern Indonesia, are expected to continue to experience emissions growth due to ongoing infrastructure expansion. The trend of cement emissions based on consumption follows the value of cement consumption in the region. The results of emission calculation and projections are very important in achieving the Nationally Determined Contribution.